How Garvan took the guesswork out of Gifts in Wills

From unpredictable income to confident forecasting

Context: Why changed was needed

When the Garvan Institute of Medical Research first partnered with More Strategic, their Gifts in Wills (GIW) program was already one of the organisation’s fundraising strengths.
But behind that success lay a familiar problem: unpredictability.

Transformational million-dollar gifts created spikes of extraordinary generosity, but they also made income forecasting unreliable. At the same time, acquisition costs were rising and Garvan’s loyal supporter base was ageing - a strength today, but a risk for tomorrow.

The goal was clear: take the guesswork out of GIW and build the evidence, strategy, and confidence to play the long game.

The Approach: From Guesswork to Guidance

Our consulting work with Garvan followed a three-stage framework:

1. Where Garvan has been: understanding Garvan's history and volatility
2. Where Garvan is going: creating activity based KPIs that connect daily actions to results
3. Where Garvan will get: using modelling and forecasting to tell a powerful story about the future.

Stage 1 - Where Garvan Has Been -> Understanding the Past

We began by analysing a decade of realised income and pipeline data to uncover the true pattern of growth beneath the volatility.
Garvan’s numbers told a familiar story: a handful of transformational bequests were driving a large share of total income. The challenge was to celebrate these gifts without letting them distort the forecast.

By smoothing out the spikes and benchmarking against pooled sector data, we helped Garvan establish a realistic baseline for long-term planning.

To bring rigour to forecasting, we modelled three scenarios. This provided a range of credible futures - optimistic, balanced, and conservative - so Board discussions could move from guessing to managing uncertainty.

Stage 2 - Where Garvan Is Going -> Building A Bottom-Up Forecast

Once Garvan had a reliable baseline, the next step was to connect day-to-day actions to long-term outcomes.
We built activity-based KPIs that linked effort, cost, and results - creating a bottom-up forecast of how every campaign and channel contributed to future income.

With this approach gave Garvan a complete picture: which activities drove volume, which delivered value, and how to optimise both.

Stage 3 - Where Garvan Will Get -> Forecasting The Future

The final step was turning insight into foresight.
Using age, conversion likelihood, and estimated estate value, we built a GIW Age Model showing when supporters’ gifts were likely to be realised and what value they would bring.

Two scenarios told the story:

• Acquiring at an average age of 77 boosted short-term realised income - a welcome bump within the next decade.

• Acquiring at 55 created a slower start but a far stronger long-term curve.

The conclusion was clear: balance both to ensure sustainability across generations.
Garvan used this insight to advocate for new stewardship roles and strategic investment - demonstrating that people power fuels future value.

The Results: Clarity, Confidence, and Growth

1. Reduced acquisition costs:
   Removing mail from a multi-channel conversion campaign cut cost per confirmed supporter by $400. It gave Garvan confidence to refine not expand - doing more of what works and less of what doesn't.

2. Higher quality leads:
   Testing lead quality showed that cash-acquired leads produced 4× ROI compared to survey leads which prompted a closer partnership with Individual Giving to focus on value over volume.

3. Improve forecasting and Board engagement:
   Tracking everything in one place gave the team instant visibility of progress year-on-year. They could now walk into Board meetings with clear, data-led predictions of future income potential.

“It’s given us the clarity and rigour we need to communicate with the Board.” - Brad - Deputy Director​

The Garvan story proves that when data meets direction, GIW programs become predictable, sustainable, and powerful.

Takeaways for GIW Leaders

• Understanding the past builds stronger planning foundations.

• Linking daily activity to forecasts gives practical confidence.

• Modelling future outcomes turns uncertainty into strategy.

• Data-led clarity builds trust with boards and leadership.

The GIW Suite brings that same capability to every charity - combining forecasting, activity tracking, and long-term modelling in one intuitive platform. Book a discovery call to find out more